
(New
Jersey Gov. Chris Christie talks to the media as he visits Jose Marti
Freshman Academy in Union City, N.J. Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013, the day
after defeating Democratic challenger Barbara Buono to win his second
term as governor. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz))
Analysis: Christie win with Latinos will be tougher nationally
by Suzanne Gamboa, @SuzGamboa
Gov.
Chris Christie pulled off in New Jersey what Mitt Romney failed to do
nationally – attract lots of Latino voters. Now, can he or any other GOP
presidential hopeful do the same nationally in 2016?
Christie’s capture of 51 percent of the Latino vote helped return him
for a second term as governor. Just as important, it’s given
Republicans a shining example showing other GOPers they can rebound from
Romney’s 27 percent showing with Latinos in 2012.
“The results show we can win the Latino vote,” said Izzy Santa, spokeswoman for the
Republican National Committee, which
assisted Christie’s campaign. “Our work isn’t done there. We are going
to evaluate where we need to be to keep growing the electorate.”
Getting that large share of the Latino vote was done by treating
Latinos like everybody else and getting in the trenches long before
election time, Christie said in a post-election news conference.
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“The problem politicians make is they look at a specific community
and say what can I say to appeal to them? That’s not my approach. Latino
folks want the same thing that everyone else wants,” Christie said.
Mike Duhaime, Christie’s top political strategist, voiced what is
likely to become mantra for Republicans who have been steadily losing
Latinos amid anti-immigrant and anti-Latino rhetoric.
“There’s no chance to win a blue state if you don’t go out and win
over Hispanics, win over a larger portion of African Americans, win a
large chunk of Democrats,” Duhaime told Chuck Todd on Wednesday’s
morning’s
“The Daily Rundown.”
But New Jersey’s Latino population is not a mirror of the Hispanic
population at large. What plays in Jersey, may not play in New Mexico,
even if that state’s governor was at Christie’s side on the final day of
his campaign.
The state’s largest Latino group is Puerto Rican, about 30 percent of the Latino population, according to
Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project. Among
eligible Latino voters, four-in-ten are Puerto Rican, 13 percent are of
Dominican origin, about 9 percent are of Cuban descent and five percent
are of Mexican origin. Another 31 percent are of other Hispanic origin.
Nationally, 59 percent of eligible Latino voters are of Mexican
origin, 14 percent are Puerto Rican, 5 percent are Cuban, 3 percent are
Dominican and 16 percent are of other Hispanic origin, according to Pew.
There are many issues that resonate throughout the Latino community,
but not all have the same ranking of importance when it comes time to
vote.
“There’s plenty of research that shows Puerto Rican Hispanics are
much less supportive of liberalized immigration reform. It’s not an
issue that affects them in the same personal way as Mexican-origin
Hispanics,” said
Ali Adam Valenzuela, a political scientist at Princeton University.
In addition, Election Day exit polling was done only in English,
meaning Hispanics who were reached were likely to be more “assimilated,”
educated and higher income, Valenzuela said.
Those differences are likely to make courting a national Latino
population more complex for Christie in a 2016 presidential run as well
as for any other candidates. There is little expectation that a
candidate could get 51 percent, but winning nationally generally means
getting at least 35 percent of the Latino vote.
What Christie did right was to stay away from the extreme policy
positions and rhetoric of other Republicans. He didn’t repeat the
mistakes Romney made of calling for “self-deportation” of people
illegally in the country.
Immigration had the potential to become a thorn in Christie’s
humming-along campaign, when young immigrants began pressing him about
in-state tuition for DREAMers – the young immigrants brought by their
parents to the U.S. illegally.
Christie had opposed in-state tuition for DREAMers but changed his
view, diffusing the issue that could have ripped into the Latino support
he had been building.
“He literally embraced diversity, when he talked about all the
different people he had hugged in the campaign. That was meant to speak
to the potential non-white Republican voter,”
Latino Decisions political scientist
Sylvia Manzano said.
The issue was front and center for Republican Ken Cuccinelli, who
lost his gubernatorial bid to Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia
Tuesday night. Though Cucinelli dialed-down some of his rhetoric on
immigration, he was unable to walk away from previous positions and
actions on the issue.
“It is telling that (Christie) won and Cucinelli lost and you know,
the party needs to understand whether those are two isolated events or
if there is a connection because there were two very different
Republican messages, I believe,” said Carlos Gutierrez, former Secretary
of Commerce under President George W. Bush who has worked with the GOP
to attract the Latino vote.
Overall, Christie was a well-liked and formidable candidate who
related to Latinos, Gutierrez said. “As many people say,” Gutierrez
said, “the candidate makes the difference.”